Paper Profile

Uncertainty Characterization Framework for CANDU Reactor Physics Calculations

Documents: Full paper available in Conference Proceedings.
Date: Monday October 19
Time:11:20 - 11:50
Session:Plenary Session I
Authors: Hany S. Abdel-Khalik (Purdue University, USA)

Quantification and understanding of uncertainty sources is an essential requirement of best-estimate (BE) reactor analysis simulation as it provides a reliable metric by which the quality of the predictions can be assessed. Although direct comparison against measurements provides the ultimate evidence that simulation predictions are reliable, the true value of any BE simulation lies in its ability to analyze reactor conditions for which measurements are unavailable. Therefore, there is a clear need to characterize, i.e., to propagate and prioritize, all sources of uncertainties in order to reliably use the results of BE calculations in the various aspects of reactor design, operation, and safety. This talk discusses a study on the feasibility of the development of a first-of-a-kind integrated framework for uncertainty characterization (UC) with primary application to CANDU neutronics calculations. The goal is to provide a comprehensive and scientifically defendable methodology for characterizing uncertainties in all BE reactor analysis calculations, including both steady state and transient simulations.

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